Answering your questions on the crisis in Sudan
Friends and supporters,
We’re well over a month into fighting between regime forces across Sudan. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) —the country’s official military— and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) show no signs of backing down.
The volume of your questions has intensified alongside this crisis. Our veteran supporters know that communication is especially important in times like these, which is why I am answering the most common questions you’ve sent us with as much transparency and honesty as we can. Let’s jump in.
What’s the current situation on the ground?
Answering this question largely depends on where you are in Sudan. Overall though, things are bad and likely to get worse in the near term.
The U.S. and Saudi-brokered temporary ceasefire seems to be collapsing in Khartoum. Fighting in the capitol has been destructive, with airstrikes, shelling, and gunfire hitting civilian homes, hospitals, and schools. Shelling and gunfire could be heard just west of central Khartoum today, with columns of black smoke rising up into the sky.
This map by @truecope does not provide every little detail of the current situation, but it does a decent job of giving you a 30,000 foot view. You can use the navigation tools to zoom into the capitol and other areas. Green is SAF-controlled areas, red the RSF.
The situation in the oppressed western Darfur region can only be described as a nightmare. This is where the Rapid Support Forces were born during the Darfur genocide many years ago and still hold sway today. Violence in Darfur appears to be worsening at a rapid pace, especially in urban areas where SAF has bases.
The West Darfur city of El Geneina has been plunged into a communications blackout for several days now. One of our contacts who recently escaped El Geneina described the city and surrounding areas as a “bloodbath,” with soldiers on both sides “completely lacking humanity.” A local community organization has described the situation as a “Rwanda genocide scenario.” It is likely that 70,000-80,000 people have fled the city and surrounding areas in the last few weeks. We cannot confirm the death count, but our contact and open source information suggest more than 2,000 people have been murdered by Sudanese security forces here. The scale of war crimes being committed in El Geneina is truly shocking.
Zalingei in Central Darfur is now surrounded by RSF paramilitaries and basic services there have collapsed. Communication to Nyala in South Darfur is increasingly difficult, with heavy artillery and gunfire on the outskirts of the city. Over 100 people have been killed in the crossfire in Nyala, with hundreds more wounded or missing. The city’s markets have been plundered by SAF and RSF troops and over 500 homes destroyed or damaged. El Fasher in North Darfur has also been hit with rolling battles.
The systematic and indiscriminate targeting of civilians by regime forces is becoming a central feature of this new war, threatening to unleash a refugee crisis at a scale we have not seen in years. We expect that the temporary humanitarian ceasefire in place right now will collapse completely in the coming days. In summary, this crisis is likely going to get much worse before it begins to ease.
Is there any reason to hope right now?
Absolutely yes, and I’m not writing that just to make you feel better. History shows that change in Sudan will never come from the top down, but the bottom up. Every time Sudan has taken a step forward, it is because of the Sudanese people. When bombs rained down on communities in the Nuba Mountains, teachers moved their classes to the safety of caves and refugee camps. The doctors and nurses at the only hospital refused to leave. Thousands of ordinary people took up arms to protect their homes. The regime lost the war.
When people across Sudan protested, long-time dictator Bashir was forced out. When the transitional government the Sudanese people fought so hard for was overthrown, a nationwide pro-democracy movement kept the revolution alive. Now the regime’s own hatreds have turned inward, with the generals fighting between themselves. For three decades now, millions of ordinary people in Sudan have been standing up to this regime in ways big and small. They’re still standing today, which means there is still hope.
How has the war impacted Operation Broken Silence’s program partners?
There is a weariness in our partners and contacts right now. We’ve alluded to this in previous updates; but, out of all the crises they’ve seen, this one is undoubtedly the most senseless and destructive. There are some flashes of anger and sadness, but our folks on the ground are mostly just tired of this regime’s existence.
The work of our Sudanese partners is becoming more difficult. The bulk of our program partners reside in the southern Nuba Mountains, which has not been directly impacted by the violence yet. Basic program costs are rising there due to the war though. The price of fuel alone has more than doubled. Giving is up from what it usually is, but not enough to cover the surge in costs.
Additionally, it’s a bit of an open secret that Operation Broken Silence quietly supports a small number of private, Sudanese-led programs elsewhere in the country. These partners were in very high-risk areas even before this crisis and have now scaled back or temporarily halted operations due to regime violence. We also have a loose network of contacts across Sudan that keep us and each other apprised of what’s happening in their neck of the woods. Our contacts are either sheltering in place, fleeing to safer locations with our financial assistance, or nervously watching to see if fighting will show up on their doorsteps.
Thankfully, we can report that we have not lost a partner or contact to the violence. A few of our people have lost loved ones though, and all of them have lost contact with at least a few family members and friends. The burden our partners and contacts carry has never been light, but it feels especially heavy now.
What’s the best way to help?
A generous private donor is responding to these urgent needs by matching all donations to our Sudanese partners, up to $15,000 total. When you donate, so do they. Operation Broken Silence is a registered 501(c)3 nonprofit organization. Your donation is tax-deductible within the guidelines of U.S. law.
Are there concerns the war will reach the Nuba Mountains?
There is a low risk of the violence spreading to the region of Sudan most of our programs are in. The Nuba Mountains are largely autonomous with its own government and standing army. This is one of the few places in Sudan that has successfully pushed back multiple regime onslaughts over the decades. Neither the Sudanese military nor the RSF seem particularly keen on starting another war with the well-armed Nuba that they would almost certainly lose.
That said, things in Sudan can change very quickly. If regime infighting does reach Nuba borders, there is a chance of that spiraling into a confusing conflict in the region, although what would be more likely is Nuba self-defense forces merely protecting their borders. Again though, this all seems unlikely at the moment. The Nuba people have long wanted Sudan’s generals to just leave them alone, and both SAF and RSF commanders seem perfectly fine with obliging, for now.
What do we know about the two generals who started this mess?
At the risk of being snarky, SAF General Burhan and RSF commander Hemeti are exactly who you likely think they are. Both men were in the upper echelons of the Bashir regime and have been linked to war crimes in Darfur for years. If the abysmal state of Sudan’s economy and widespread social unrest leading up to this war are any signs of their governing capabilities —and they are— then both men are also remarkably incompetent when it comes to basic governance. Considering the current situation, that’s not exactly surprising.
The vast majority of the Sudanese people don’t want either of these men to rule Sudan. They want democracy and the ability to choose their own leaders. If one of these men wins this war in a decisive manner, which seems increasingly unlikely, he will be facing a seething pro-democracy movement and broader civilian population that hates or distrusts him.
How long will the fighting continue?
We don’t know. Multiple ceasefire attempts have temporarily reduced the violence in Khartoum for a few hours at a time, but fighting keeps roaring back. International efforts to silence the guns have had little to no temporary impact outside of the capitol.
Most concerning for us is that Burhan and Hemeti do not have full control of their own troops. This has been an issue across Sudanese security forces for years and, specific to the RSF, that is by design.
The technical term for this is command and control. When a general or commander gives an order, do units obey? Do they even get the order? In this case, not always. Even if Burhan and Hemeti get serious about a ceasefire, it could take weeks for them to reign their soldiers in. Every bullet fired during a ceasefire threatens to destroy any agreement made.
How do we describe the violence? Is this a civil war or something else?
There’s understandably a lot of confusion about how to label this conflict. Most civil wars today are between a country’s government and an organized armed rebellion. The fighting in Sudan is strictly between regime security forces or, in other words, the government itself. Both sides trying to delegitimize the other in the attached war of words doesn't change the fact that they are both part of the same regime.
Civil wars scholar James Fearon has previously defined a civil war as "a violent conflict within a country fought by organized groups that aim to take power at the center or in a region, or to change government policies." Civil wars in the context of Sudan have historically been decades-long conflicts. On our end, we’ve decided to hold off on using the term civil war for now because it’s still too early to tell where this is all heading. Technically though, you could call this the early stages of a civil war if you wanted to.
Is the United States doing anything?
Yes. U.S. diplomats are some of the primary leaders of ceasefire talks in Jeddah. The State Department recently announced $245 million in additional humanitarian support to the people of Sudan and neighboring countries taking in refugees. For more details about what the U.S. government is doing, check out our recent blog post on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Sudan.
Get Involved
Operation Broken Silence has been working next to our Sudanese partners on the ground for over a decade. Our mission of empowering local solutions has always been focused on the long run.
The fastest way to help our Sudanese partners and contacts is to make a quick donation online, or setup a small monthly gift to help provide them the consistent support they need. A generous private donor is matching all donations, up to $15,000 total. Give now to double your impact!
OTHER WAYS TO HELP
Start a fundraising page and ask friends and family to give
Make a check payable to Operation Broken Silence and mail it to PO Box 770900 Memphis, TN 38177-0900
Operation Broken Silence is a 501(c)3 tax-exempt organization and your donation is tax-deductible within the guidelines of U.S. law.
I know this is a distressing time, but our mission remains unchanged. Let’s each play our small part in giving our friends in Sudan the best chance for real, lasting change. I hope you will join me in making a matched donation today.
Onward,
Mark C. Hackett
Executive Director
