War in Sudan shifts in favor of army
The last few months of heavy fighting between the army and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have seen battlefield conditions turn in favor of the army.
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Sudan Crisis Guide
Trying to make sense of the war in Sudan? We’ll get you up to speed in just a few minutes.
February has witnessed a number of important military and political developments on the ground in Sudan. While the conflict appears to be far from over, it is apparent the army now has the upper hand.
A quick recap for those who are new to this situation. Since April 2023, Sudan has been ravaged by war between the national army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). These former allies ousted the country’s transitional civilian government in 2019 and have craved control of a nation that wants neither in charge ever since.
This senseless war has made Sudan ground zero for the largest hunger, displacement, and childhood education crises in the world. The capital city of Khartoum and countless towns and villages are largely destroyed. Nearly 25 million people —half the country— are hungry, with famine conditions plaguing multiple areas and healthcare services largely collapsed. One in five Sudanese have fled their homes, and the U.S. government recently recognized that genocide is being committed.
The 30,000 foot view
In recent weeks, the army has deployed fresh troops and equipment that have been building up for months, launching major offensives to push the RSF out of Greater Khartoum and break its sieges on army positions in central and south-central Sudan. The fighting has been intense and, for the most part, the army is beating back the RSF or the paramilitary force is retreating in the face of certain losses.
The below map shows approximate areas of control in Sudan as of February 25, 2025. If you’ve been tracking the war with us for some time now, then you can see just how much the RSF is faltering, especially in central and south-central Sudan.
Map: l.r. stands for local resistance, with both of those armed groups having spent much of this war defending their territory and ethnic minority populations against the army and RSF. Click or tap to expand. (source)
Army breaks siege on El-Obeid
In December, the army slowly advanced toward Umm Ruwaba in central Sudan before taking the city in late January and expanding into the surrounding areas. Over the past several days army forces advanced on El-Obied, the capital of North Kordofan State that has been under siege by the RSF for nearly two years, before taking the city on February 23.
Militarily, the army capturing El-Obied opens a critical road between the states of North Kordofan and White Nile, leaving the army in a much better position to continue pushing west toward En-Nahud, where another army garrison is holding out under RSF siege. Humanitarian conditions in El-Obied are poor due to the lengthy RSF siege blocking critical aid from getting in. The army is reportedly restricting civilian movements in El Obied, but hopefully aid can begin reaching the city in the coming days and weeks as the army solidifies control over the surrounding areas.
If the army does manage to continue advancing west and capture En-Nahud, they will have a second gateway to strike into main RSF strongholds in the western Darfur provinces. The RSF has controlled most all of western Sudan since the early days of the war, with the exception of El Fasher and more recently parts of North Darfur.
Army seizes Bahri and threatens to encircle Khartoum proper
It now seems only a matter of time before the RSF loses its grip on Sudan’s battered and starving capital city. The army steamrolled through the rest of Bahri (Khartoum North) in mid-February, bringing relief to army units in the Kober enclave that have been under siege since the beginning of the war.
Map by Operation Broken Silence. Click or tap to expand.
Bahri was already significantly damaged during the last five months of fighting and shelling, and even more buildings and homes were destroyed during the army advance. What is left of an economy here is more or less the black market and there are essentially no basic services, meaning many former residents who fled throughout the war likely will not be returning anytime soon.
The army is now pushing forward on multiple fronts in the Greater Khartoum area (see our map). East Nile, a northeastern suburb of Khartoum, seems to be the army’s immediate target. RSF units are already stretched thin in the area. East Nile is still relatively populated as fighting there has been very limited and many residents are unable to leave due to a lack of finances. Even a minor exchange of fire between the army and RSF here could be devastating for inhabitants as they have nowhere to flee.
The army is also making gains further south (outside of our map’s view), seemingly to encircle Khartoum and trap remaining RSF forces. Right now the RSF does not have the manpower or resources to break any sort of encirclement, especially considering how heavy the army’s presence in the area now is. Large parts of Khartoum have depopulated over the last nearly two years; however, due to urban density, whenever the army does invade, fighting will likely be brutal and block-by-block unless RSF forces surrender. When Khartoum does fall to the army, it will be a significant strategic and symbolic victory for the force.
What does all this mean for Sudan’s besieged citizenry?
This brief update does not cover all the recent frontline developments. Chaos continues to plague North Darfur as the Joint Forces —an army ally— battle the RSF. Meanwhile, the RSF has continued its brutal siege of El Fasher and nearby Zamzam Displacement Camp, where an estimated two million people face extreme violence and famine. And a thawing of relations between RSF leaders and the SPLM-N in the southern Nuba Mountains (see our first map) may lead to renewed fighting between the army and SPLM-N in South Kordofan.
The bottom line is that the Sudanese people continue to bear the brunt of this war and famine. The frontlines shifting in favor of the army likely won’t see much improvement in living conditions, although not being under the terror of RSF rule is being broadly welcomed in communities the army is capturing. To make matters worse, the recent chaos the Trump Administration has inflicted on USAID —one of the largest providers of lifesaving food relief in Sudan— has resulted in the reported closure of over 70% of Sudanese-run emergency food kitchens, threatening to push more areas of the country into full-blown famine.
Still, the army are neither angels nor capable of providing anything close to good governance. Army soldiers and their militia allies have committed reprisal killings along ethnic lines as they advance into new areas, and the RSF tends to rampage on defenseless communities in the wake of battlefield losses. Humanitarian aid is still being blocked in large parts of the country, including to some areas under army control. Regardless of whether the army or RSF have the momentum on the battlefield, both sides are still waging a war on the Sudanese people.
Operation Broken Silence is dedicated to Sudanese communities, cultivating resilience and driving meaningful change through crowdfunded programs. Our Sudanese partners are overwhelmed with needs as war and hunger spread. By joining Miles For Sudan or giving below, you will help them serve the most vulnerable in this time of tremendous need.
$1,000 - Fully funds one classroom at Endure Primary School in Yida Refugee Camp for half a semester.
$500 - Delivers food to Darfuri genocide survivors who have fled to South Sudan.
$250 - Provides a daily breakfast to 10 children for an entire month in Adré refugee camp, where many Darfuri genocide survivors now live.
$100 - Supports the monthly work of a sexual assault counselor in Zamzam displacement camp in North Darfur, Sudan.
$50 - Helps bring school supplies to students in Yida Refugee Camp.
Checks can be made payable to Operation Broken Silence and mailed to PO Box 770900 Memphis, TN 38177-0900. You can also donate stock or crypto.
Operation Broken Silence a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Donations are tax-deductible within the guidelines of U.S. law. Our EIN is 80-0671198.
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The last few months of heavy fighting in Sudan have seen battlefield conditions turn in favor of the army. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/war-in-sudan-shifts-in-favor-of-army
Since April 2023, Sudan has been ravaged by war between the army and Rapid Support Forces. The former allies ousted Sudan's transitional civilian government in 2019 and have been fighting for control of a nation that wants neither in charge ever since. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/war-in-sudan-shifts-in-favor-of-army
In recent weeks, the army has deployed fresh troops and equipment that have been building up for months, launching major offensives to push the RSF out of Greater Khartoum and break its sieges on army positions in central and south-central Sudan. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/war-in-sudan-shifts-in-favor-of-army
The army steamrolled through the rest of Bahri (Khartoum North) in mid-February, bringing relief to army units in the Kober enclave that have been under siege since the beginning of the war. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/war-in-sudan-shifts-in-favor-of-army
Operation Broken Silence is dedicated to Sudanese communities, cultivating resilience and driving meaningful change through crowdfunded programs. Will you join us? https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/war-in-sudan-shifts-in-favor-of-army
