Famine descends on Sudan, 2.5 million people could die from hunger by September 2024
The greatest humanitarian emergency of our lifetime is unfolding in Sudan.
Almost no one has noticed, and time is running out.
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When gunfire and explosions erupted in Khartoum in April 2023, it was clear that Sudan’s merciless generals would give no quarter to the Sudanese people. Fighting between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) quickly spread across the country. So did the war crimes, which has given way to a full-blown genocide in Darfur perpetrated by the Arab-dominated RSF against the region’s ethnic African minorities. Gruesome images of mass executions, beheadings, and bodies left to rot in the streets have trickled out of Sudan ever since.
Indeed, this living nightmare is just as much a total war on Sudan’s diverse, beautiful citizenry as it is a battle for power between two of the most barbaric armed forces in the world. Fourteen long months of extreme violence has displaced 11 million people. Over 20 million children can no longer attend school and most farmers cannot work. Over 70% of Sudan’s healthcare system has been knocked offline, and the medical facilities that remain are overwhelmed and underfunded. Communication networks are collapsing, further hampering the Sudanese people’s efforts to get information out to the world.
As month after month has slipped by with no end in sight, food has become more and more scarce. A perfect storm of the army and RSF blocking humanitarian aid, extreme violence, depleted harvests, soaring prices, and a near criminal lack of international attention has brought Sudan to the brink of an unfathomable humanitarian catastrophe.
Almost 18 million Sudanese —one third of the entire country— are facing severe food insecurity. And, according to a new report, 2.5 million of those most at risk could perish from hunger over the next three months.
The Clingendael Institute, a Hague-based think tank on international affairs, recently released “From hunger to death: An estimate of excess mortality in Sudan, based on currently available information.” The detailed report opens with a grim picture of what lies ahead:
“Using food balance estimates based on published data on harvest and stocks, and somewhat optimistic estimates of stocks at household level, wheat imports and humanitarian food aid, excess mortality was calculated under a number of scenarios. A scenario in which the hungriest people are given small amounts of extra food by others leads to an estimated excess mortality of about 2.5 million people (about 15% of the population in Darfur and Kordofan, which are likely worst affected) by the end of September 2024.
A tipping point at which large-scale hunger transitions into large-scale death has likely already been reached in parts of the country in May.”
The full report can be viewed here. It contains technical language that may be unfamiliar to the general public, so we have pulled forward some key points below that get to the essence of this crisis.
Famine is descending on Sudan. Here’s what the near future could look like.
According to the report, it is estimated that 90% of excess mortality will be concentrated among roughly 10% of the population. Spreading hunger will likely be worst in Darfur and Kordofan where food production and humanitarian efforts are abysmally low due to targeted violence, insecurity, and the blockage of aid. This implies that about 15% of the population in Darfur and Kordofan will die from hunger and disease by September 2024 if there are no rapid improvements in food availability. Seasonal rains are coming soon and will likely make all forms of transporting food aid very difficult by early July. The below map is helpful in visualizing all of this.
While the below classifications consider the severity of hunger, it is the duration of hunger that may need more attention. If food deficits are below what the body can adjust to for long enough, many people will die even though they do not fall into the category of “catastrophic hunger.” Simply put, one cannot survive at emergency levels of food consumption for a long time.
Photo: Map from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) showing how quickly Sudan is descending into famine.
Brave, informal community-level initiatives to share food and feed the hungriest households are increasingly precarious. If neighborhood “soup kitchens” face any uptick in harassment, money transfers being blocked by internet shutdowns, or food availability dwindling in markets, the number of people being served will reduce suddenly and drastically. And the lack of any sort of formal status of these groups means major international aid agencies are not working with them at scale.
While strengthening local mechanisms for food redistribution can make a real difference in the immediate future, it will neither be enough to stop hunger nor enough to avoid death in the longer term. All indications are that conflict, rising prices, and other challenges will lead to a below-average harvest in 2024, even if seasonal rains are good. There are also no indications that global imports of cereals —which feature heavily in the Sudanese diet— will return to pre-war levels anytime soon.
Unless there is a rapid, structural, and large-scale increase in the availability of food (i.e. a ceasefire and a massive humanitarian intervention) it can be expected that after a limited recovery immediately following an upcoming reduced harvest, the 2025 lean season will bring even worse hunger and death than this year will.
Chart: “Excess morality” is the number of deaths beyond what is expected under normal circumstances. (Clingendael)
A Few Notes From Us
For reasons beyond understanding, an official famine has not yet been declared, even though the few who are responding to this crisis are seeing hard evidence that the silent killer has arrived. Outgoing Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs recently said on June 4 that there is “a likelihood that five million people across the country [Sudan] could face famine. I don't think we've ever had that kind of number at risk of famine.”
This is no time to be cautious with our language. The famine is now here and, if something does not change soon, the next few months will provide ghastly evidence of this truth. Merely preventing the crisis from getting worse will lead to countless deaths. Hunger must be reversed if a complete death spiral is to be averted.
Sudan’s military elite are the driving force behind this crisis, but the international community’s refusal to hold them accountable and pursue less traditional ways of getting aid into the country in the interim is compounding the damage. This situation has been warned about for months. There was ample time for the world to get organized, creative, and aggressive in response. An effort to do so is only barely underway now, and small organizations like us are still overwhelmed with needs as we wait for the rest of the world to catch up.
That said, there are reasons to hope. The Clingendael report correctly points out that “even a modest redistribution of food to the hungriest people can substantially reduce excess mortality.” This is no long-term solution, but it does buy precious time that is running out. Time that ordinary Sudanese can use to escape the hardest hit areas or strengthen their own brave efforts to feed the most hungry. We ask that you join us in giving to that end, whatever you can spare.
How You Can Help
Operation Broken Silence is building a global movement to empower the Sudanese people through innovative programs as a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. For over a decade, we've allied people just like you with incredible Sudanese heroes on the ground. Your gift will help them continue their lifesaving work.
Team Zamzam in Darfur, Sudan - 20 female counselors serving victims of sexual violence and malnutrition in Zamzam displacement camp near El Fasher. They are distributing food to the disabled, the elderly, orphans, widows who have taken in children, and those with severe acute malnutrition. This is the area of Sudan most in need right now.
Refugee Leaders in Adré, eastern Chad - Experienced local healthcare and aid workers are running a small feeding program and two clinics to provide food and care to the most vulnerable, specifically the disabled and orphans. This is where many survivors of the Darfur genocide have fled. Rations have been cut in the camp due to a lack of funding.
Education Office in Juba, South Sudan - Our Nuba education partner has an office in Juba, where thousands of refugees from Darfur have arrived traumatized and hungry. Few have been able to secure refugee food benefits due to severe lack of international funding. Our partner is trying to provide basic food but has only 20% of the funding they need to do it.
Other Ways To Support These Heroes
Checks can be made payable to Operation Broken Silence and mailed to PO Box 770900 Memphis, TN 38177-0900.
Join Miles For Sudan, the new global event helping runners, walkers, and cyclists convert their miles into dollars raised.
Purchase our Sudan Forever t-shirt to help raise awareness about this ignored crisis and deliver food relief.
Donate stock or crypto from your investment portfolio, which can come with unique tax benefits.
Operation Broken Silence is a registered 501(c)(3) organization. Your donation is tax-deductible within the guidelines of U.S. law.
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Famine is descending on Sudan. 2.5 million people could die from hunger by September 2024. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/2-5-million-sudanese-could-die-from-hunger-by-september-2024
The greatest humanitarian emergency of our lifetime is unfolding in Sudan. Almost no one has noticed, and time is running out. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/2-5-million-sudanese-could-die-from-hunger-by-september-2024
The living nightmare unfolding in Sudan is just as much a total war on the country’s diverse, beautiful citizenry as it is a battle for power between two of the most barbaric armed forces in the world. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/2-5-million-sudanese-could-die-from-hunger-by-september-2024
Almost 18 million Sudanese —one third of the entire country— are facing severe food insecurity. And, according to a new report, 2.5 million of those most at risk could perish from hunger over the next three months. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/2-5-million-sudanese-could-die-from-hunger-by-september-2024
Operation Broken Silence is building a global movement to empower the Sudanese people through innovative programs. For over a decade, we've allied people just like you with incredible Sudanese heroes on the ground. Will you join us? https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/2-5-million-sudanese-could-die-from-hunger-by-september-2024
