Sudan at “breaking point” as US pushes forward with uncertain talks
History may look back on the next few weeks as some of the most pivotal in Sudan’s long story, as multiple crises in the war-torn country come to a head and the United States makes a long-expected move at talks in Geneva.
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16 months of extreme warfare between Sudan’s brutal national army and a genocidal militia known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has gutted some of Sudan’s largest cities and smallest villages alike. What little of the healthcare system that remains is overwhelmed. Hunger is now giving way to famine, with roughly 100 people already dying from starvation every day. To make matters worse, devastating floods are hitting 11 of the country’s 18 provinces, killing dozens and damaging already collapsing critical infrastructure.
Othman Belbeisi, regional director for the United Nation’s International Organization for Migration, recently summed up where this leaves the Sudanese people, saying "We are at a breaking point, a catastrophic, cataclysmic breaking point. Without an immediate, massive and coordinated global response, we risk witnessing tens of thousands of preventable deaths in the coming months."
This situation can already be described as a living nightmare; but, despite the horrors of the world’s largest humanitarian emergency, Sudan is still very much on the precipice of an unfathomable crisis. A descent into total darkness has been held at bay for months by brave and exhausted Sudanese assisting their neighbors in fleeing to safer areas and feeding the hungry through local soup kitchens. Very infrequent and small international aid deliveries have also bought precious time.
But these efforts are now faltering from rampant insecurity, a collapsed economy, and still criminally underfunded global aid effort. Most evidence and estimations of human suffering coming out of Sudan today are widely recognized as being drastic undercounts. Indeed, this crisis has been so ignored that US Special Envoy for Sudan Tom Perriello noted in May “we don’t have a credible death count. We literally don’t know how many people have died. The number was mentioned earlier 15,000-30,000; some think it’s at 150,000.”
Three long months later and the world is only paying marginally more attention. There is still no credible death count.
With over 750,000 people already struggling to survive in famine conditions and nearly 26 million more suffering from high levels of acute food insecurity, it’s clear hundreds of thousands of lives are hanging by a thread right now. The easiest place the world can see this is at the borders, where refugees stream into Chad and South Sudan —often with dangerously thin arms and thousand-yard stares— telling stories of surviving extreme violence through the deep pangs of hunger.
A ceasefire is desperately needed. It’s unclear how talks will secure one.
It is this urgent situation that international negotiators and observers are confronting in Geneva, Switzerland starting August 14, where the United States government is leading a summit to secure a ceasefire and pry open humanitarian aid access.
The stakes are high, and not just because of spiraling conditions on the ground in Sudan. Multiple countries and international organizations have attempted to broker a ceasefire and broad aid access since the outset of the war to no avail. The American attempt is the first serious one in months and comes on the heels of Special Envoy Perriello shuttling from country to country, building considerable international consensus against a military solution and toward a ceasefire.
But even with all the work leading up to the talks in Geneva, a ceasefire anytime soon seems unlikely. The army has decided to boycott the talks, while the RSF delegation in Geneva failed to show up with no explanation.
Powerful, pro-war hardliners in the army who do not want to negotiate with the RSF seem to have the upper hand for now. The head of the army, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, reportedly demanded that any delegation he send be recognized as Sudan’s official government, not as merely representing the army. For context, the U.S. State Department’s invitation to the talks was addressed to the Sudan Armed Forces, not the Government of Sudan. This is actually an important distinction as it suggests the United States does not see the army as Sudan’s legitimate government, a logical position to hold in light of the circumstances. After all, it was the army and RSF who teamed up in 2021 to overthrow Sudan’s legitimate government in an illegal coup.
The sincerity of the RSF and its fiendish leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemeti) was always deeply questionable, too. The genocidal paramilitary force has regained momentum the past few months and recently smashed through army lines in southeastern Sudan. The past few days the RSF has also intensified its siege of El Fasher, the last army stronghold in the western Darfur region. RSF top commanders were likely hoping their hardened military actions would strengthen their hand in Geneva. Instead, it is only causing more suffering to hundreds of thousands of the Sudanese people who are fleeing RSF attacks.
It’s unclear how a ceasefire is to be achieved when both sides refuse to participate. But this does not mean zero progress can be made. The State Department has been somewhat secretive when it comes to the exact format and specific details of the talks, and observers from the African Union, IGAD, European Union, Arab League, and several individual countries are already in Geneva.
It appears that American diplomats wanted the option of being able to shift Geneva into being a global summit, creating potential space for the international community to work around the two warring sides to help the Sudanese people. This Plan B seems to what Special Envoy Perriello is now pursuing, saying this morning he is “moving forward with the negotiations on everything we can do, to make sure we are getting food and medicine and civilian protection to every person in Sudan.”
Regardless of what happens in Geneva, this is likely the international community’s last diplomatic opportunity to blunt spreading famine before the death toll skyrockets. As was previously mentioned, Sudanese are already perishing to extreme hunger. Every indicator suggests tens of thousands of innocent people —and likely many more— will needlessly die in the coming months.
This continues to be a war and famine of choice, brought on by a group of generals who are as dangerous as they are incompetent. We should hope that those gathered in Geneva will choose alternative measures to aid the Sudanese people directly, even if that must be done in unconventional and creative ways.
Take Action
Operation Broken Silence is building a global movement to empower the Sudanese people through innovative programs as a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. For over a decade, we've allied people just like you with incredible Sudanese heroes on the ground. Your gift will help them continue their lifesaving work.
$2,200 - Fully funds one classroom at Endure Primary School in Yida Refugee Camp for one semester.
$1,000 - Supports the monthly work of 5 midwives in the Nuba Mountains.
$500 - Helps purchase emergency food and medicines in Zamzam Displacement Camp, North Darfur, which is currently under siege by the RSF.
$250 - Supplies food to Darfuri genocide survivors who have fled to South Sudan.
$100 - Provides a daily meal to 6 children for a month in Adré, eastern Chad, where many Darfuri genocide survivors live.
$50 - Delivers a day’s worth of basic medicine to three clinics in the Nuba Mountains, Sudan.
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History may look back on the next few weeks as some of the most pivotal in Sudan’s long story, as multiple crises in the war-torn country come to a head and the United States makes a long-expected move in Geneva: https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/sudan-at-breaking-point-as-us-pushes-forward-with-uncertain-ceasefire-talks
This situation in Sudan is already a living nightmare; but, despite the horrors of the world’s largest humanitarian emergency, Sudan is still very much on the precipice of an unfathomable crisis. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/sudan-at-breaking-point-as-us-pushes-forward-with-uncertain-ceasefire-talks
International negotiators are confronting the humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan —now the largest in the world— in Geneva, where the United States government is leading a summit to make progress toward a ceasefire and pry open humanitarian aid access. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/sudan-at-breaking-point-as-us-pushes-forward-with-uncertain-ceasefire-talks
The army and RSF are refusing to participate in US-sponsored ceasefire talks for Sudan, embracing extreme violence and famine instead. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/sudan-at-breaking-point-as-us-pushes-forward-with-uncertain-ceasefire-talks
