Sudan Crisis Update
A new year in Sudan has delivered no relief to the country’s dangerous political crisis that began with the illegal coup in October 2021. With the recent resignation of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, the heads of Sudan’s brutal security forces are back in full control, with no facades.
The results of the regime’s illegal and dangerous actions are catastrophic: over 60 Sudanese in major cities have been murdered and countless more injured as pro-democracy protests continue picking up steam. The far-from-complete economic turnaround is reversing. The peace process with armed opposition forces in Sudan’s bloodied periphery, where regime-backed violence is surging once more, has stalled.
While the now defunct transitional governing process in Sudan was always flawed, one of the tangible benefits was a noticeable reduction in regime violence against unarmed and peaceful civilians. Those days are gone. Hamdok’s resignation was arguably the only real choice he had. There was no clear path forward due to the military’s intransigence; however, his resignation has put the security forces and civilians in direct confrontation once more. There is no obvious technical solution now.
What Happens Next?
Despite the harsh realities of the moment, Sudan’s coup plotters seem to be unaware that they’re playing an old game in a new time. A new generation of leaders is on the ascendant in Sudan, intimately aware of how these generals operate. They grew up knowing only regime rule and have tasted freedom. For them, there is no going back.
The Sudanese people are left with no reasons to desire a return to a transitional period. And why would they? The military was supposed to play an important role in transitioning Sudan to a fledgling democracy. Instead, the generals stabbed the Sudanese people in the back, and they did so right before the transitional constitution required that they begin handing power to their civilian counterparts. One can easily understand why protesters now demand full civilian rule. In many ways, they’re already supposed to have it.
For the generals, there are no personal incentives —long the driving force behind their decision-making— for their stepping aside. There shouldn’t be any either, something both the pro-democracy movement and much of the international community seems to realize. Incentives provided in the past have been pocketed for private gain, with progress for ordinary Sudanese ultimately blocked in the end. The question now is what effective international pressures can be brought to bear on the regime, and how can it be done in such a way that the Sudanese people are shielded from further harm.
The full ramifications of this moment for Sudan are yet to be seen, but what is at stake now extends far beyond the country’s porous borders. To the west, in Chad and Libya, it is an open secret that paramilitaries belonging to the regime’s powerful Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are deployed as mercenaries for various actors in those countries. The RSF is also driving much of the renewed violence in Darfur, two coupled realities which —when followed to their logical conclusion— only spell further chaos in those two countries.
Meanwhile, to the east with Ethiopia, the still unresolved issues related to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and violent disputes over border areas threatens to escalate. And with the transitional government now defunct, the Sudanese government is essentially absent from the peace process in South Sudan. The two countries have several outstanding border disputes that have descended into armed conflict before. Underneath the urgent threat of military rule in Sudan for the foreseeable future, the risk of further violence in these areas is almost certain to escalate.
In moments like these, the only choice is to enter dialogue or pursue the path of mass violence. The nature of this dynamic should make such a choice an illusion and, to be sure, many seem to understand that. The pro-democracy movement and much of the international community desires a peaceful and just resolution to a crisis they did not start. In fact, the United Nations is beginning consultations to try to salvage this mess.
Sadly, the generals sitting across the table have a long history of murdering, raping, and maiming first and not asking questions later. At this moment, there are no signs this historical reality has changed, leaving Sudan’s future mired in a murky uncertainty.
Freedom, peace, and justice has long been the clarion call rising up from the streets of Khartoum to the displacement camps in Darfur, from the long-persecuted Nuba Mountains to the oft-forgotten and oppressed east. That future is still possible, but only if the international community and globally-minded citizens join hands with the Sudanese as they push for change.
How You Can Help
Operation Broken Silence is the only nonprofit in the world funding community-led education in Yida Refugee Camp, right outside of Sudan. Without the Endure Primary and Renewal Secondary Schools, the entire education system would collapse.
When we all do our small part, teachers in Yida like Chana are able to create the conditions for future leaders to thrive. Here are a few ways to support them:
OTHER WAYS TO HELP
Start a fundraising campaign and ask friends and family to donate
Make checks payable to Operation Broken Silence, write Education in the memo line, and mail to P.O. Box 770900 Memphis, TN, 38177-0900
Donate from your DAF, gift stock, and discover other ways to give.
About Us
Operation Broken Silence is building a global movement to empower the Sudanese people through innovative programs as a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization.
We focus on empowering Sudanese change makers and their critical work. Learn more.
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