Sudan is set to be removed from the terror list. Here's what that means.
Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militants in Khartoum, Sudan.
What would normally be a huge US foreign policy story will most likely go down as a footnote in 2020 . Earlier today, President Trump announced on Twitter that he intends to remove Sudan from the U.S. government’s State Sponsors of Terrorism list:
GREAT news! New government of Sudan, which is making great progress, agreed to pay $335 MILLION to U.S. terror victims and families. Once deposited, I will lift Sudan from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list. At long last, JUSTICE for the American people and BIG step for Sudan!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 19, 2020
While this is welcome news, there’s a lot going on here. Let’s get into the weeds a bit.
Background
If this is all new to you, the relationship between Sudan and the United States has been fraught for three decades. The Bashir regime seized power in a military coup in 1989 and immediately became one of the worst dictatorships in history.
Omar al-Bashir and his cronies orchestrated the mass murder of an estimated 2.5 million of the Sudanese people, forcibly displaced millions more, and hosted a plethora of terrorist organizations. At one point, even Osama bin Laden called Sudan home.
The Clinton Administration added Sudan to the State Sponsors of Terrorism list in August 1993. Only three other countries are on this list today: Iran, North Korea, and Syria. Being listed as a State Sponsor of Terrorism comes with broad sanctions and diplomatic efforts to isolate and punish.
Sanctions were quickly piled on Sudan in an attempt to cripple the regime, and Bashir and his henchmen became international pariahs. With few exceptions, American policy has mostly held this course ever since.
In 2019, people across Sudan peacefully took to the streets to demand an end to the Bashir regime. After months of bloodshed against protesters, Bashir was arrested by his own military. The brutal military council that replaced him faced even larger protests. They begrudgingly allowed for the creation of a transitional government months later.
Today, Sudan is ruled by this transitional government, which includes military officers from the Bashir regime and new civilian leaders. The country is supposed to have free and fair elections in 2022.
The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly
US policy toward Sudan has always been a mixed bag. President Trump’s announcement today is no different, and he also left out some important details.
The Good
Let’s begin with the obvious: removing Sudan from the terror list is the right move. It’s not without problems, but it is what the Sudanese people want and deserve.
Children from the Nuba Mountains of Sudan in Yida Refugee Camp, where Sudan’s revolution is entirely unfelt.
The listing has hampered Sudan’s transition to democracy. International financial institutions and businesses have continued to avoid doing business in Sudan due to the designation. The economy is in a tailspin: inflation is over 200% and the Sudanese pound is at 262 against the dollar on the black market. Bread and fuel lines are common in Khartoum.
Even more concerning is that there has been zero investment in Sudan’s historically oppressed hinterlands, where the need for change is so dire and overdue that people are losing hope.
Many things have to go right for Sudan to transition to a sustainable democracy. A failed economy is a primary threat. Removing the terror designation will help outsiders feel more comfortable about opening up lines of business and credit to Sudan, which can help civilian leaders in the transitional government move the revolution forward.
The Bad
The way the Trump Administration went about this left a lot to be desired. The concessions extracted from the transitional government left a bad taste in the mouths of many Sudanese people and American allies. President Trump’s America First approach has created a concerning rise of anti-Americanism in Sudan’s borders. The United States is now the oddball straggler in how Sudan is being welcomed into the global community.
The Trump Administration jackhammered the beleaguered transitional government for months — for no good reason — to get to this obvious point. Rather than treating this moment as an opportunity to turn a former enemy into a new friend, the administration tied progress on relations with Sudan solely to a broader regional goal of better relations with Israel and settling the long-running dispute of terrorism-related compensations.
Sudanese protesters march in Khartoum, Sudan. May 2019.
Both are issues that do not touch the lives of ordinary Sudanese, who bravely brought down the regime American policymakers have hated for so long. They did it alone, paying with their own blood in the process. In return, the Trump Administration smacked them around before responding with a policy choice that boils down to getting out of the Sudanese people’s way. While there are no guarantees that a democratic Sudan would be best friends with Israel, we know that democracies tend to drift toward each other. Resolving disputes between Israel and Sudan could have happened with more ease and less work in the not-so-distant future.
Peace in the Middle East and justice for families of terrorism are admirable goals; however, extending and worsening threats to a once-in-a-lifetime chance for democracy and peace in Sudan, and thereby running the risk of the military and Islamists returning to power, was extraordinarily reckless. Had these efforts failed and Sudan’s transition gone underwater, Sudan and Israel would still be on bad footing, no compensation would be available for families, and the Sudanese people would be back at square one.
The Ugly
If there was a reason for the Trump Administration to take this iron-fisted approach, tying the removal of the terror designation to weakening powerful surviving elements of the regime would have made more sense. For example, demanding the disarming and demobilization of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a regime paramilitary outfit that continues to terrorize ordinary people across Sudan, could have been a worthwhile pursuit. It also ties in more directly with why Sudan was even on the terror list.
RSF commander Hemeti is the primary military threat to Sudan’s democratic aspirations. He’s a violent holdover from the Bashir regime and has a deep desire to rule Sudan. The Trump Administration could have focused the terrorism delisting on the greatest terror threat remaining in the country. Instead, they ignored the reality on the ground for issues unrelated to Sudan’s move toward democracy.
What Happens Next
Thankfully Sudan’s transition has not gone underwater and — because the situation in Sudan is dire — there’s a decent chance that Sudanese leaders will forgive the United States for this painfully weird approach. That’s assuming that the Trump Administration quickly moves forward on the agreement made, which we don’t have the full details of. Based on the well-documented chaos in the Trump Administration, there’s reason to be concerned that the agreement won’t move forward at the pace needed.
Under U.S. federal law, once the President formally notifies Congress of his decision to remove Sudan from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism, Congress will have 45 days to review the case. The House and Senate could block the decision with a veto-proof joint resolution, or simply let the decision stand without a vote.
2 \ According to the understandings reached between the White House and the Sudanese government Senate leadership will announce its intention to pass a Sudan immunity bill that will protect Sudan from future law suits in America by terror victims
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 19, 2020
4 \ After Sudan gets what it wants it will announce it is starting a normalization process with Israel, Israeli sources tell me. They said a phone call between Trump, Netanyahu and Sudan’s leaders Burhan and Hamdok could take place within days
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 19, 2020
Despite the setbacks in this process, we should welcome this positive development.
Hopefully Sudan will be removed from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list soon. This designation has been rightfully described as unproductive and burdensome. Removing this obstacle means the United States will no longer actively be standing in the way of the Sudanese people.
The United States can certainly do a much better job moving forward. Today is a good day though. Here’s how you can help keep moving the needle.
GET INVOLVED
There hasn’t been a better time to run toward lasting change in Sudan. It’s why we fund two incredible Nuba-led schools in Yida Refugee Camp. Our supporters supply 24 Nuba teachers who oversee 1,300 refugee children a year.
Our 11th annual 5k is going to be virtual this year! Team captains are already bringing together runners online across the United States. The teachers and students in Yida need you to join them right now. Register for $15 and raise another $35 through your fundraising page before November. Your effort supports them.
About Us
Operation Broken Silence is building a global movement to empower the Sudanese people through innovative programs as a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. We focus on empowering Sudanese change makers and their critical work. Learn more here.
Donations are tax-deductible within the guidelines of U.S. law. Give here.
About Mark
Mark Hackett is the Executive Director of Operation Broken Silence. He works with our Sudanese partners and oversees our daily operations.
Mark is one of only a few Americans to have been on the frontlines in the Nuba Mountains during the war and Yida Refugee Camp.
