IPC predicts 19.2 million Sudanese will face acute food insecurity heading into 2026
Background Image: RSF fighters celebrating in El Fasher. Foreground Image: IPC Snapshot Report of Sudan famine.
While some areas in eastern Sudan have seen improvement, war and uncertainty in the Darfur and Kordofan provinces ensures the world’s largest humanitarian emergency will continue well into next year.
•••••
For the second time in less than a year, a Famine Review Committee working underneath The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has confirmed famine is underway in parts of Sudan. The grim news comes in a Snapshot Report released by the IPC in November.
The IPC says that back in September, during the peak of the lean season, 21.2 million people were facing high levels of acute food insecurity. This was a decline of roughly 3.4 million people from earlier in the year, largely after the army captured Khartoum, Al Jazirah and Sennar states starting in March 2025. Although marginal to the scale of this crisis, this was obviously good news for families who saw their living conditions slightly improve as conflict reduced and humanitarian aid access improved in these areas.
Sudan Crisis Guide
Trying to make sense of the war in Sudan? Let’s get you up to speed.
Looking forward, the IPC predicts another 2 million Sudanese are expected to see improved food conditions in the first months of 2026, mostly due to increased sorghum and millet production in these same provinces.
Snapshot Summary
You can see the full 6 page snapshot here. We’ve also pulled together some highlights from the IPC’s report below:
As of September 2025, El Fasher in North Darfur —which is experiencing a fast-paced genocide— and the besieged town of Kadugli in South Kordofan were classified as being in Famine (IPC Phase 5 - with reasonable evidence). Famine is characterized by a total collapse of livelihoods, starvation, extremely high levels of malnutrition, and death.
With the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) recently regaining some momentum, the uncertainty surrounding the future of the war heightens the risk of famine, particularly in 20 areas expected to receive displaced populations across North, South, and East Darfur, as well as West and South Kordofan. IPC notes that since October 26, the RSF capturing El Fasher has resulted in widespread human suffering and further displacement towards Tawila and other neighboring areas, exacerbating already dire humanitarian needs.
There is a risk of famine in 20 areas across the Darfur and Kordofan provinces between October 2025 and May 2026. This risk arises under a plausible worst-case scenario involving intensified conflict, and further restrictions on humanitarian access and the movement of goods and people, beyond what is anticipated in the most-likely scenario. The good news is that, compared to the December 2024–May 2025 IPC projection, 9 of the 17 areas previously at risk of famine no longer face this risk.
Graphic by IPC (click or tap to expand)
Conflict is expected to intensify with the onset of the dry season, with remaining frontlines in North Darfur and Greater Kordofan remaining highly volatile. Eastern Sudan is expected to stay relatively stable, though airstrikes will likely continue in Khartoum, Kosti (White Nile State), El Obeid (North Kordofan), and South Darfur.
Harvests in the Darfur and Kordofan provinces will be well below average due to insecurity, despite favorable agroclimatic conditions. Central and eastern Sudan —particularly Al Jazirah, Sennar and Khartoum— expect an increased sorghum and millet production compared to 2024. However, these gains will be partially constrained by infrastructure damage and limited access to inputs. Blue Nile State will likely experience below-average production due to dry spells.
Between February-May 2026, food availability is expected to decline across the country as households’ stocks from the harvest diminish. Conflict around the El Obeid corridor will likely hinder the movement of essential goods from more stable areas of eastern Sudan states to the southern and western states of Kordofan and Darfur. Food prices are expected to rise as food stocks gradually decline and, in rural and poorly connected areas, limited access to major urban markets may persist.
How you can help
Our free global event turns everyday runs, bike rides, and walks into lifesaving support. Every mile you put in and dollar you raise helps fund emergency aid, healthcare, and education programs led by Sudanese heroes. We also have an option where you can skip the exercise and just fundraise. Donations are being matched for a limited time!
Checks can be made payable to Operation Broken Silence and mailed to PO Box 770900 Memphis, TN 38177-0900. You can also donate stock or crypto. Operation Broken Silence a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Donations are tax-deductible within the guidelines of U.S. law. Our EIN is 80-0671198.
Shareables
Short statements you can share online and with others. Simply copy and paste.
Share Our Posts: Instagram | Facebook | Threads | Bluesky | Reddit | LinkedIn
While some areas in eastern Sudan have seen improvement, war and uncertainty in the Darfur and Kordofan provinces ensures the world’s largest humanitarian emergency will continue well into next year. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/ipc-predicts-19-million-sudanese-to-face-acute-food-insecurity-heading-into-2026
For the second time in less than a year, a Famine Review Committee working underneath The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has confirmed famine is underway in parts of Sudan. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/ipc-predicts-19-million-sudanese-to-face-acute-food-insecurity-heading-into-2026
As of September 2025, El Fasher in North Darfur and the besieged town of Kadugli in South Kordofan were classified as being in Famine, which is characterized by a total collapse of livelihoods, starvation, extremely high levels of malnutrition, and death. https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/ipc-predicts-19-million-sudanese-to-face-acute-food-insecurity-heading-into-2026
Operation Broken Silence is dedicated to Sudanese communities, cultivating resilience and driving meaningful change through crowdfunded programs. Will you join us? https://operationbrokensilence.org/blog/ipc-predicts-19-million-sudanese-to-face-acute-food-insecurity-heading-into-2026
