War clouds loom over Sudan's Nuba Mountains
Nuba fighters in Kauda, Nuba Mountains of Sudan. (AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty)
The multi-year ceasefire between Khartoum and the Nuba Mountains region of Sudan is at risk of collapsing, threatening to spread the war between former regime security forces to yet another region of the country.
Sudan has not had a functioning government since mid-April, when the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began fighting each other for control of the country. The extreme violence has been most severe in Khartoum and the oppressed western Darfur region, where thousands of people have been murdered in a RSF-backed genocide in El-Geneina. More than 2.5 million Sudanese have been displaced across the country.
Rising Tensions in Nuba
The Nuba Mountains are nestled in South Kordofan state in southern Sudan. This is the area where most of our Sudanese partners work. The mountains are practically autonomous after decades of armed resistance to military rule. Several dozen African tribal groups who live here can trace their beautiful history back more than 2,000 years. The 1.3 million Christian, Muslim, and traditionalist Nuba people live mostly in harmony together.
The Sudanese army and their paramilitary allies committed a genocide against the Nuba people in the 1990s and another genocidal war in the 2010s. A fragile ceasefire has been in place since 2016. Today, the area is governed by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), the powerful Nuba armed resistance force that developed during previous wars.
Tensions have been escalating between Khartoum and the Nuba Mountains since October 2021, when the army and RSF overthrew Sudan’s transitional government. When the regime collapsed in April and the army-RSF war began in earnest, the region was largely spared from the extreme violence. The SPLM-N has reported that nearly 200,000 displaced Sudanese have fled into the Nuba Mountains since early May.
Clashes near the western front
Insecurity in western South Kordofan has worsened over the past few weeks as fighting between the army and RSF encroached on the area. The highway between Dilling and the state capital of Kadugli further south has fallen prey to bandits and small RSF units. This not only poses a danger to thousands of people using the road to flee heavy fighting in Khartoum and El-Obied further north, but it has also disrupted trade and contributed to growing economic scarcity in southern Sudan. Pricing of basic goods in Dilling have almost doubled.
Reported fighting as of June 23, 2023. Click or tap to zoom.
On June 8, the Nuba government began mobilizing its forces after skirmishes broke out between army soldiers and SPLM-N fighters near Kadugli. The cause of the fighting is unknown, but the SPLM-N quickly gained the upper hand and took three small villages outside the state capitol. The situation has deteriorated since.
Over the past several days fighting has fanned out along the route between Dilling and Kadugli. The SPLM-N claims to control most of the road. On Wednesday Nuba fighters reached the outskirts of Dilling and briefly breached army defenses, seizing the central police station before withdrawing. No civilian casualties were reported during the SPLM-N’s time in the city, but a number of casualties were reported among the army.
Complicating this situation is the arrival of a larger RSF force in the area. RSF paramilitaries plundered the town of Debebad north of Dilling a week ago and raped three women. They also defeated army units at Teiba military base near Dilling and are consolidating their control, likely before moving south against Dilling.
On Thursday, the RSF also exchanged artillery fire with the army near Kadugli, the latter of which has reportedly abandoned their base in the south of the city and sent in warplanes to bomb nearby SPLM-N and RSF positions. Residents said the army had deployed reinforcements in the city Thursday as SPLM-N units approached from the south and east and the RSF from the west and northwest.
A Three-sided War?
There is still no reported aerial bombardment in areas of the Nuba Mountains firmly under SPLM-N control, which was the cause of much of the humanitarian crisis during the last war in the 2010s. Prices of basic goods are going up though, and there is rising concern the ceasefire will not be restarted.
It’s doubtful the army can commit military assets to a war against the Nuba Mountains right now, especially considering they remain engaged in heavy fighting with the RSF in Darfur and Khartoum. It’s also unclear how long the army can hold Kadugli and Dilling against both the SPLM-N and RSF. If the army begins to lose ground in South Kordofan, there is a high chance the Nuba SPLM-N and RSF will be fighting each other as well as the army in the near future. The army is more or less a buffer between the two right now due to their base and resupply locations.
What the RSF aims to achieve in South Kordofan is a mystery. Perhaps it’s to knock out two army garrisons or solidify another supply route to El Obied and Khartoum further north. Whatever the RSF commanders’ decision to enter South Kordofan now is, it seems unlikely the SPLM-N will allow the paramilitaries to get too close to their borders, especially considering the RSF’s atrocious history in the area.
So, where is all this heading? While the army and RSF’s past wars in the region have been incredibly destructive, none went as planned or achieved their ultimate aims. The Nuba SPLM-N is better armed, controls more territory, and is more entrenched in their mountain strongholds than ever before. Time will tell if the western front expands further and for how long. Until then, our Sudanese partners’ worries and the costs for just about everything are going up.
We Need Your Help
In our 12 years of working alongside Sudanese heroes, we’ve never seen anything like this. Extreme violence is spreading across Sudan. Entire cities and villages are being destroyed. Program costs are skyrocketing.
Our Sudanese partners are struggling. They need 100 of us to start giving at least $50/month to continue their critical education and healthcare work and reach more people in need. ⚡️This is a big matching campaign!⚡️ Every new monthly gift will be matched by a generous private donor for 3 months.
The Renewal is our passionate family of monthly givers supporting Sudanese teachers and healthcare professionals. When we match their grit with a monthly financial commitment, we become an unstoppable force for good.
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